Following its sixth consecutive downgrade of global economic performance, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook again projects a recovery around the corner. The government shutdown aside, news from the US has been encouraging; despair on the eurozone is abating; and the Chinese slowdown has been orderly. Green shoots have appeared before, only to disappoint. Might this time be different?
在连续六次下调对全球经济表现的预测之后，国际货币基金组织(IMF)的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)又一次预计全球经济将在不久之后复苏。除了政府关门以外，来自美国的消息总体令人感到振奋;笼罩欧元区的绝望情绪正在减退;而中国的经济增速放缓也并未引发乱象。经济复苏的迹象以前也曾出现过，但只给人们带来了失望。这一次情况是否会有所不同呢?
World trade is a helpful lens through which to monitor global economic health. The collapse of 2008-09 was triggered by a financial earthquake but transmitted across the world by a precipitous fall in trade. Early in the crisis, industrial production fell at the same pace as at the start of the Great Depression in 1929-30 ? but the trade collapse was unprecedented. Looking into the abyss, world leaders mustered a co-ordinated stimulus to limit the fall. Yet the rebound was powered by the Chinese appetite for imports that accelerated global trade in 2010.
考察国际贸易形势有助于监控全球经济的景气状况。2008-09年间的经济危机是由一场金融地震引发的，但通过国际贸易的急剧萎缩传导到了世界各地。在经济危机的初期，工业产出的下降速度与1929-30年大萧条(Great Depression)刚刚爆发时别无二致――但国际贸易的大幅萎缩则史无前例。面对深渊，世界各国领导人协作推出刺激方案，以控制国际贸易的下滑趋势。但中国对于进口商品的巨大需求才是促使国际贸易反弹的真正原因，并推动国际贸易在2010年加速增长。
That was misread as the end of the crisis. In early 2010, the recovery was expected to propel world gross domestic product to more than 4 per cent annual growth over the next five years, higher than in the boom years of 2003-07. But GDP growth in 2013 will be less than 3 per cent. Private deleveraging, the shift from fiscal stimulus to austerity, and structural deficiencies ? now more manifest ? are to blame.
人们将之误读为危机的结束。2010年初，人们曾预计贸易复苏将推动世界各国的国内生产总值(GDP)在未来五年里实现超过4%的年均增长，高于2003 至2007年经济繁荣期里的增长速度。但2013年全球GDP增速或不足3%;导致这一状况的主要原因在于私人部门的去杠杆化，从财政刺激向财政紧缩的政策转向，以及经济结构缺陷(这点在当前尤为明显)。
A crucial element of global forecasts was the view on world trade, which was projected to grow between 2011 and 2013 at an annual rate of 6 per cent, 1 percentage point above its average over the past few decades. It has fallen short. For 18 months it has grown at a paltry annual rate of about 2 per cent.
全球经济预测中的一个重要组成部分是对国际贸易形势的观点，国际贸易规模曾被预测会在2011至2013年间实现6%的年均增长，较前几十年的年均增速高出1个百分点。但到目前为止这一预期未能实现。近18个月以来，国际贸易的增长态势疲软，年化增速仅为约2%。
Today the world economy is in an unusual phase: world trade growth is below world production growth rates. So a necessary amplifying force for a global recovery is missing. In fact, economic distress is being spread through global trade.
当前全球经济处于一个非常时期：全球贸易增长率低于全球产出增长率。由此导致全球经济复苏不可或缺的一股助推力量缺失。事实上，经济低迷正在通过全球贸易传播开来。
The eurozone is central to this dynamic. Though the global ripples are not as manifest as they were amid financial turmoil, they are real. European economies are among the most trade-intensive. As they have fallen into a stupor, their imports from each other have imploded.
欧元区是这一动态过程的核心。虽然全球经济联动效应已不像金融危机期间那样明显，但这种效应确实存在。欧洲经济体属于贸易密集度最高的经济体。鉴于它们已经陷入了“昏迷”状态，欧洲国家互相之间的进口规模急剧萎缩。
But Europe’s economic size ensures its sharply reduced imports generate substantial global spillovers too. The effects have been felt directly in Asia, with which Europe has strong trade links. As Asia has slowed, so has the demand for commodities, sucking a larger group of emerging economies into this downward ambit.
但由于欧洲的经济规模非常庞大，其进口大幅下降还在国际范围内激起了巨大的溢出效应。与欧洲存在紧密贸易联系的亚洲现已直接感受到了这种影响。随着亚洲经济增长放缓，其对大宗商品的需求也趋于下降，并将更多的新兴市场经济体拉入了下行通道。
In turn, weak world demand is exacerbating the domestic dysfunctions of emerging markets. Their resilience was applauded during the critical phase of the crisis. The IMF’s WEO just six months ago still viewed emerging economies as the new engine of world growth. But without the buffer of global demand, their longstanding structural problems have resurfaced. The sharp currency depreciations faced by Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey were a wake-up call.
全球市场需求疲软又进而加剧了新兴市场国家内部的经济运转失调。它们曾因在经济危机最严重阶段所表现出的经济弹性受到赞誉。就在6个月之前，IMF的《世界经济展望》仍将新兴经济体看作全球经济增长的新引擎。但缺少了全球市场需求的缓冲作用，新兴经济体由来已久的经济结构问题再次浮现出来。巴西、印度、印度尼西亚以及土耳其货币的大幅贬值就是一记警钟。
Now the bets are again on developed economies. Yet today there is no global locomotive. Continued US recovery requires the same consumer-driven boom that led to the crisis. China must curb its excesses. Economic revival elsewhere awaits a boost from robust trade; but deep-rooted country stresses, magnified by global interconnections, hamper trade growth. There is little scope for further monetary activism and no appetite for fiscal stimulus. Politics everywhere is stymieing the pace of policy action, as the US government shutdown reminds us.
现在人们再次把希望寄托在了发达经济体上。但如今已经没有能够拉动全球经济的火车头。美国经济的持续复苏需要有消费者需求推动的经济繁荣作为支撑，而正是这种消费繁荣引发了经济危机。中国必须控制其过度投资行为。其他国家的经济复苏则有待强劲贸易的推动;但根深蒂固的国家压力阻碍了贸易增长，国家之间的相互联系又放大了这种压力。进一步的货币举措如今已没什么空间，各国也无意推出财政刺激。世界各国的政治都在拖累政策行动的步伐，美国政府关门如是提醒我们。
The global economy is barely moving forwards. The hope is that good news will jolt it into a self-reinforcing lift-off. But equally, bad news and policy errors could rapidly aggravate vulnerabilities.
全球经济目前基本停滞不前。希望是，有关经济复苏的好消息能够推动全球经济开启一段不断自我强化的增长过程。但同样，负面消息以及政策错误可能导致经济体中的脆弱方面迅速恶化。
History requires us to heed this warning. During the climb back from the Depression, world trade also grew at or below world production rates. Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley, wrote that, without a co-ordinated global policy, each country needed time to heal its wounds before re-emerging as a productive contributor to world trade and growth. The healing happened in time ? but, if the Depression started in 1929, we may still be in 1933, with a few years before global growth is robust. A quick change in that dynamic may prove elusive.
历史要求我们重视这些警示信号。在大萧条后的恢复过程中，全球贸易的增长速度同样等于或低于全球产出增速。加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)的巴里?埃森格林(Barry Eichengreen)写道，如果没有一套互相配合的全球经济政策，每个国家都需要时间来治愈自身的伤口，然后才能重新成为全球贸易与经济增长的高效推动者。这一修复过程已经及时出现――但如果大萧条始于1929年，我们目前可能仍处在相当于1933年的状态，此时距离全球经济重启快速增长还有好几年的时间。迅速改变这一动态过程可能很难实现。
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