Bond yields fell sharply after weak jobs growth of 148,000 in September led investors to predict more asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve.
美国9月就业人数增长低于预期(仅增长14.8万人)，导致债券收益率大幅下跌。投资者预计，这样的就业情况会导致美联储(Fed)继续资产购买计划。
A delayed September report came in below analyst expectations of 180,000 jobs, pointing to weak economic momentum even before October’s government shutdown, but there was another drop in the unemployment rate to 7.2 per cent.
推迟出炉的9月就业人数增长数字低于分析师预期的18万人，显示在10月政府关门事件发生之前，经济增长就已出现减弱势头。但9月失业率再次下降，达到7.2%。
October’s data will be scrambled by the fiscal battle, but the September report sets a sluggish baseline for the economy, and vindicates the Fed’s decision not to taper its asset purchases from $85bn a month at its last meeting.
10月数据会受到政府财政大战的影响，但9月的报告已为经济增长划出疲软的基线，并说明美联储上次会议上决定暂时维持资产购买规模不变的决定是有道理的。
The Fed was already extremely unlikely to slow its asset purchases at its next meeting on October 30, because of the absence of evidence on the economic effects of the shutdown, but the fragility of jobs growth makes it even less probable.
美联储在10月30日的下一次会议上决定放慢资产购买速度的可能性原本已经极低，因为不知道政府关门会对经济产生多大影响。而就业人数增长数字低于预期，会进一步降低美联储放慢资产购买速度的可能性。
“For the Fed, the key take away from the report is likely to be that the economy is in no shape to deal with the level of reduction in monetary policy stimulus,” said Millan Mulraine at TD Securities in New York. “Given the uncertainty about . . . the fallout from the government shutdown on the economy it will probably be some time before a clear picture emerges.”
道明证券(TD Securities)美国研究和策略总监穆连恩(Millan Mulraine)说：“对美联储而言，就业报告传递的关键信息可能是，经济情况还未好到能够接受美联储减少货币政策刺激的水平。考虑到政府关门……对经济的影响不确定，或许要过一段时间经济情况才会明朗。”
The yield on ten-year US government bonds fell to 2.53 per cent after the report, from 2.59 per cent, and is back at levels that prevailed in July. The S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent after the report to trade at 1,752.34
报告发布后，10年期美国政府债券收益率从原先的2.59%降至2.53%，回到了7月份的大致水平。标普500指数(S&P 500)在报告发布后上涨0.4%，至1752.34点。
September’s data extend a trend of weakening jobs growth as the year has gone on. In February, average growth for the past three months was 233,000, but since July the average has been 143,000. Accelerating jobs growth is one of the Fed’s goals for its asset purchases.
9月就业人数增长数字延续了今年以来就业人数增长日益缓慢的趋势。2月份的时候，前3个月每月平均就业人数增长23.3万人，但自7月以来，这个平均值是14.3万。促使就业人数加速增长是美联储资产购买计划的目标之一。
But the report also deepens a puzzle about why the unemployment rate is falling so fast despite mediocre jobs growth. Unemployment has dropped from 7.6 per cent in June to 7.2 per cent as the number of people in the labor force fell.
但刚刚出炉的报告进一步加深了人们的疑惑：为何在就业人数增长平平的情况下，失业率下降如此迅速?随着劳动力人口数量下降，失业率已从6月的7.6%降至7.2%。
That could suggest more people have permanently given up looking for work, or that their lack of skills makes them unemployable. In that case, the Fed would not need so much jobs growth to get back to full employment, forcing it to raise interest rates sooner than it expects.
这可能意味着，有更多人已永久性放弃了找工作，或者因职业技能欠缺丧失了就业条件。在这种情况下，美联储不需要那么高的就业人数增长数字就能实现完全就业，从而迫使它早于预期提高利率。(FT)
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