This year’s Nobel laureates in economics have fundamentally altered the way investors analyze, buy and sell stocks.
今年的诺贝尔经济学奖获得者从根本上改变了投资者分析和买卖股票的方法。
American professors Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller have won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences “for their empirical analysis of asset prices.”
美国教授尤金•法玛(Eugene Fama)、拉尔斯•彼得•汉森(Lars Peter Hansen)和罗伯特•希勒(Robert Shiller)凭借他们在资产价格的实证分析上作出的贡献，赢得了2013年诺贝尔经济学奖。
Asset price analysis impact the way individuals chose to save and how governments chose to stimulate economies. Poor pricing can lead to economic bubbles and crashes, the danger of which became clear during the financial crisis. “Their methods have become standard tools in academic research, and their insights provide guidance for the development theory as well as for professional investment practices, ” states a report from The Royal Swedish Academy of Science which selects economics laureates.
资产价格分析影响个人选择储蓄以及政府选择如何刺激经济的方式。定价不合理可能会导致经济泡沫和崩溃，其危险性在本次金融危机期间变得清晰可见。负责遴选诺贝尔经济学奖得主的瑞典皇家科学院在一份报告中表示：“他们的方法已经成为学术研究的标准，而他们的见解为理论的发展以及专业投资实践提供了指导。”
University of Chicago professor Fama found that it is nearly impossible to predict short term changes in stock prices. In the 1960s he showed that knowing how a stock performed last week will do little to help determine this week’s prices. Fama’s research also demonstrates that new information like dividend announcements and stock splits are quickly incorporated in to share values. Within a day of big news stock prices tend to return to randomness. If the response to new information was slower price predictions would be more stable. He later found that a stock’s correlation with the larger market has little predictive power, but market-capitalization and ratios that compare book value to market value are highly predictive.
芝加哥大学教授法玛发现，人们几乎不可能预测股票价格在短期内的变化。在20世纪60年代，他曾经证明，知道一只股票在上周的表现如何，对于判断该股在本周的价格没有多少帮助。法玛的研究还证明，诸如股息公告和股票拆分等新信息会迅速体现到股票价值上。在重大新闻发布的一天之内，股票价格往往就会重新恢复随机性。如果对新信息作出的反应较慢，那么价格预测会较为稳定。他后来发现，一只股票与市场大盘之间的相关性并不能提供多少预测性，但市值以及市值与账面价值比率具有很高的预测性。
In the 1980s Shiller added complexity to Fama’s work of the ’60s, unveiling a pattern to long term changes in price. He confirmed Fama’s findings by showing that stock prices fluctuate more than underlying fundamentals like dividend yield. This discovery flew in the face of conventional thinking that stock valuation should coincide with expected future dividend payout. But over the long term prices tend to fall if the price to dividend ratio is high. When this ratio is low, a stock’s price increases in the long term. Shiller, now at Yale University, has shown that this pattern extends to bonds and other asset classes.
在 20世纪80年代，希勒在法玛60年代的研究中增加了复杂性，推出了一个价格长期变化的模式。他表明股价的波动幅度远远超过股息等基本面指标，从而证实了法玛的研究结果。这一发现与人们普遍认同的股票估值应该与预期的未来股息派发相一致的看法恰恰相反。但如果股价与股息的比率较高的话，那么长期而言股价往往会下跌。而如果这个比率较低的话，那么长期而言股价会上涨。目前任职于耶鲁大学的希勒已经证明，这种模式适用于债券及其他资产类别。
Shiller’s work led to new questions about investor rationality, price fluctuation and discounting. Lars Peter Hansen, also of the University of Chicago, took steps toward answering these questions with his Generalized Method of Moments, a statistical model that incorporates asset prices, savings and risk. He used this model to disprove popular asset pricing ideas and further confirm Shiller’s findings.
希勒的研究结果产生了有关投资者理性、价格波动及贴现的一系列新问题。和法玛一样任职于芝加哥大学的拉尔斯•彼得•汉森，采用他的广义矩估计方法(Generalized Method of Moments)―― 一种包含资产价格、储蓄和风险的统计模型，设法回答这些问题。他利用这个模型来反驳流行的资产定价观念，并且进一步证实了希勒的研究结果。
Fama, Hansen and Shiller’s discoveries have lead to the popularity of index funds, the study of risk and the field of behavioral finance.
法玛、汉森和希勒的发现促使指数基金得以普及，并且推动了对风险以及行为金融学领域的研究。
The Nobel Prize in economics has been awarded since 1969, with the annual prize going to multiple laureates 23 times for a total of 74 laureates. The average age of all winners is 67 (Shiller is 67, Fama and Hansen are 74 and 60 respectively). Only one woman has won the economics prize. This year’s winners will share a prize of 8 million Swedish kronor ― or $1.2 million.
诺贝尔经济学奖从1969年起开始每年颁发，其中有23次是由多人同时获奖，总共已经产生了74名获奖者。所有获奖者在获奖时的平均年龄是67岁(席勒67 岁，法玛和汉森分别是74岁和60岁)。到目前为止，只有一位女性曾经获得过诺贝尔经济学奖。今年的获奖者将分享800万瑞典克朗(约合120万美元)的奖金。
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