Debt sales from the developing world have rebounded after a summer of turmoil and the US budget crisis stunted demand, leading analysts and bankers to predict the second record year of bond issuance in a row.
在经历了一个夏季的市场动荡，以及美国预算危机对债券需求的抑制之后，发展中国家的债券发行规模出现反弹。分析师和银行家们因此认为，今年的债券发行规模或将接续去年再创历史新高。
Emerging markets were this summer severely rattled by the US Federal Reserve’s plans to scale back its monetary stimulus program, which has pumped $85bn a month into global bond markets.
今年夏季，美联储(Fed)缩减货币刺激项目规模的计划在新兴市场引起了巨大恐慌。美联储的货币刺激项目每月向国际债券市场注入850亿美元。
The developing world has been one of the prime beneficiaries of the Fed’s quantitative easing, so discussions in May about ending the scheme sent currencies tumbling and borrowing costs higher this summer as investors rushed to dump emerging market securities.
由于发展中国家是美联储量化宽松政策的主要受益者之一，因此5月份美联储有关终止量化宽松的讨论，使得投资者纷纷慌忙抛售新兴市场证券，导致今夏新兴市场货币大幅贬值，借款成本上升。
However, the US central bank in September unexpectedly backtracked on immediate plans to “taper” QE, restoring some calm to emerging markets and allowing a flurry of debt sales.
但美联储9月份出人意料地放弃了短期内“缩减”量化宽松的计划，这在一定程度上恢复了投资者对新兴市场的信心，并使得一系列债券发行交易得以进行。
Governments and companies in the developing world sold $108bn of bonds to international investors in September and October, and have issued almost $6bn of debt so far this month, according to Dealogic.
Dealogic提供的数据显示，9、10两月发展中国家的政府和企业共向国际投资者发行了价值1080亿美元的债券，11月到目前为止的债券发行规模约为60亿美元。
That lifts overall debt sales to $439bn this year, and brings last year’s record of $488bn within reach, given signs of mounting demand. The average subscription of sovereign bond sales has climbed from 2.5 times in August to 5.2 times in October, according to Morgan Stanley.
受此提振，新兴市场今年到目前为止的债券发行总规模已达到4390亿美元，去年创下的4880亿美元纪录显得伸手可及。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)提供的数据显示，新兴市场新发行主权债的平均认购倍数已从8月份的2.5倍攀升至10月份的5.2倍。
Emerging market companies have already sold a record $235bn of corporate bonds this year. “This is likely to be the best year yet, and, given all that happened this summer, that is very positive,” said a bond banker. “Despite outflows from funds, we are finding deals are going very well.”
今年新兴市场企业已经创纪录地发行了价值2350亿美元的企业债券。一位从事债券业务的银行家指出：“今年很可能将成为有史以来债券发行形势最好的一年，考虑到今年夏季的市场动荡，当前的形势非常积极。虽然来自基金的资金出现了外流，但我们看到债券发行交易的整体进展非常顺利。”
Analysts expect November to be another strong month as EM issuers prepare for repayments due next year. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that there is more than $70bn of EM bond repayment and interest coming due in the first quarter.
分析师预计，11月将成为又一个市场表现强劲的月份，因为新兴市场的债券发行方将开始为明年的偿付做准备。摩根士丹利的分析师预计，新兴市场债券明年第一季度的本金和利息偿付规模将超过700亿美元。(FT)
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