Opec has increased its forecast for long-term global oil demand for the first time in six years, after reassessing the prospects for car ownership in China.
欧佩克(Opec)六年来首次上调其对全球长期石油需求的预测，此前该组织重新评估了中国汽车保有量的前景。
After several years of revising down estimates in the face of anaemic economic growth, the Vienna-based organization raised its forecast for demand to 108.5m b/d by 2035, up from 107.3m b/d in last year’s report.
在连续数年面对低迷经济增长下调估算后，总部位于维也纳的欧佩克将2035年原油需求预测从去年报告中的1.073亿桶/日上调至1.085亿桶/日。
Opec’s bullish view flies in the face of claims that the age of oil is over as developed countries embrace fuel efficiency measures and cleaner burning energy sources.
欧佩克的乐观预测与当今盛行的一些说法截然相反，后者认为，随着发达国家积极采取能效措施，并转向更清洁的能源来源，石油时代已经告终。
Opec sees car ownership in China rising by more than 380m vehicles during the next 22 years, or 320 cars per 1,000 people by 2035, similar to the growth rate in Japan in the 1990s. Indian car ownership is also forecast to rise sharply.
欧佩克预计，中国的汽车保有量将在今后22年里增加逾3.8亿辆，到2035年达到每1000人拥有320辆汽车的水平。这种增速与上世纪90年代的日本相仿。预计印度的汽车保有量也将快速增长。
“Oil demand is seen rising as the large populations of China and India . . . move out of poverty and turn to fuel-based means of transportation,” said Abdalla Salem El-Badri, Opec secretary-general.
“随着中国和印度的庞大人口……摆脱贫穷，转向消耗燃料的交通方式，我们认为石油需求将不断增长，”欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉•萨利姆•巴德里(Abdalla Salem El-Badri)表示。
The forecasts come as the rapid growth in production from US shale fields and Canadian oil sands is eating into the cartel’s share of the global oil market. In its annual oil market outlook, Opec says demand for its crude will fall below 30m barrels a day next year and not recover until after 2020.
这些预测出炉之际，来自美国页岩油田和加拿大油砂的产量快速增长，正在侵蚀欧佩克这个卡特尔在全球石油市场所占的份额。欧佩克在其年度石油市场展望报告中预测，对其原油的需求明年将降至3000万桶/日以下，一直要到2020年以后才会恢复。
That highlights the challenge facing the cartel, whose members include Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela, from unconventional oil production. As recently as 2011 Opec expected demand for its crude to reach 33.2m b/d by the end of the decade.
这突显出这个卡特尔组织面对的来自非常规石油来源的挑战;该组织的成员国包括沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和委内瑞拉。就在2011年时，欧佩克还曾预计对其原油的需求到本10年末将达到3320万桶/日。
But the cartel appears confident the market can avoid the price shock many are forecasting, as Chinese demand grows. In its central forecast Opec assumes prices will average $110 per barrel until 2020 before shooting up to $160 per barrel by 2035 as North American shale output declines.
但这个卡特尔组织似乎有信心认为，随着中国需求增长，市场能够避免不少人预测会出现的价格冲击。欧佩克的核心预测是，油价在2020年之前将保持在平均每桶110美元的水平，到2035年北美页岩油产量下降时将飙升至每桶160美元。
The report again takes a skeptical view on US shale oil, arguing that well economics could rapidly deteriorate as the best prospects have now been drilled.
这份报告再度对美国页岩油的前景表示怀疑，提出随着最容易开采的地方已经钻井开采，钻井作业的经济性可能很快恶化。
“Constraints could come from the resource base, while improvements in drilling efficiencies and fracking operations could plateau,” the report adds.
“制约因素可能来自资源基础，而钻井效率的提高和水力压裂作业的改进则可能趋缓，”报告补充称。
In its reference case, Opec does not foresee any shale oil output outside of North America during its 22-year forecast period.
欧佩克在参考案例的22年预测期中，没有预测北美以外会有任何页岩油产量。(FT)
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