The stars are aligning for a major bull run in the dollar. As America emerges from the Great Recession in better shape than the rest of the developed world, the US currency is on a roll.

　　美元有望迎来一波大牛市行情。美国从“大衰退”(Great Recession)中复苏的情况好于其他发达国家，美元也节节攀升。

　　A wave of upbeat economic figures, the latest being robust February jobs data, have pushed the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield back above 2 per cent and left the S and P 500 stock market index sitting just 1 per cent below a record high. And that is good news for the dollar.

　　一连串经济数据转好(最新表现是2月就业数据强劲)，推动美国基准10年期国债收益率回到2%以上，标准普尔500指数也只比历史最高值低1%。这对美元是利好消息。

　　On a trade-weighted basis, the world’s foremost reserve currency has marched 4.5 per cent higher over the past five weeks ? gaining with relatively risky assets such as equities as US recovery prospects have brightened ? while the euro, sterling and yen have all retreated.

　　随着美国经济复苏前景转好，作为世界主要储备货币的美元与股票等风险资产一同上涨，美元贸易加权汇率过去5周来已累计上升4.5%，与此同时，欧元、英镑和日元全都走低。

　　“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US is crawling out of the mud faster than other developed economies,” says Nicholas Pifer, portfolio manager at Columbia Management.

　　Columbia Management的投资组合经理尼古拉斯•皮弗(Nicholas Pifer)说：“美国步出困境的速度比其他发达经济体更快，这一点已越来越明显。”

　　This relative US outperformance is restoring the role of interest rates to foreign exchange markets. Put simply, the rise in the dollar is attracting more foreign investors wanting to own US assets that generate additional currency gain.

　　美国经济相对较好的表现逐渐恢复了利率对外汇市场的作用。简言之，美元走强正吸引更多外国投资者持有美国资产，以获取额外的汇率收益。

　　Even as the Federal Reserve has been buying heavily US Treasury bonds under its quantitative easing programme ? which should send bond prices higher and yields lower ? yields have been rising against those of German Bunds and Japanese government bonds, boosting the dollar.

　　即使美联储一直在通过量化宽松计划大量购买美国国债(此举按说会推高美国国债价格、拉低其收益率)，美国国债收益率相对德国和日本国债也一直在升高，这对美元具有提振作用。

　　“The best explanation for this latest leg up in the dollar is growth differentials mediated by interest rate differentials,” says Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

　　布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球外汇策略主管马克•钱德勒(Marc Chandler)说：“关于最近美元走强的原因，最好的解释是，这是增长速度差异与利率差异共同作用的结果。”

　　Alan Ruskin, global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank, says: “We are getting back to a traditional cycle where the US is at the forefront of a recovery.”

　　德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)全球外汇策略主管艾伦•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)说：“我们正回归传统周期，美国重新成为经济复苏的领头羊。”

　　US 10-year yields have risen to their highest premium since August 2011 versus much lower Japanese yields. German two-year yields sit an average of 18 basis points below their US benchmark, the largest divergence since early January, says Mr Chandler.

　　美国10年期国债收益率走高，而日本10年期国债收益率则大幅下跌，二者息差已扩大到2011年8月以来的最高值。德国两年期国债收益率平均比美国两年期国债收益率低18个基点，钱德勒表示，目前两者息差处于1月初以来最高水平

　　Some warn that this divergence in bond yields may not last. If so, the recent burst of dollar strength could prove temporary. Jose Wynne, head of global FX strategy at Barclays, says investors looking for a firmer signal of sustained dollar strength should wait for it to rally against a broader pool of currencies, including those of emerging nations.

　　有人警告称，债券收益率的这种差异可能不会持久。如果是这样的话，美元最近的强势或只是暂时现象。巴克莱(Barclays)全球外汇策略主管乔斯•温(Jose Wynne)表示，投资者如果希望看到更明确的美元持续走强信号，应该等待美元对更多种货币(包括新兴国家的货币)走高。

　　There are historical clues to further gains. The last two big periods of dollar ascendancy occurred in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. Those bull runs were marked by a starting point where the dollar was cheaply valued against the backdrop of an improving domestic economy and rising interest rates.

　　从历史情况来看，美元应该会继续上涨。美元上两轮大牛市行情发生在上世纪80年代早期和90年代中期。那两波行情开始时，都正值美国国内经济好转、利率上升，美元正是在这种背景下遭到低估。