Is capitalism broken? That is the portentous question that I and other Financial Times columnists will be attempting to answer next week in a series of “Great Debates” that the paper is hosting in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

　　资本主义崩溃了吗?英国《金融时报》本周将在北京、上海和香港三地举办系列“大辩论”，辩论中，我与其他英国《金融时报》的专栏作家将试图回答这个“不详”的问题。

　　I will be arguing that capitalism is not broken. This is not, at present, a popular position. The market crash of 2008 called the stability of the world’s financial system into question, sparking both a Great Recession and huge government intervention.

　　我的论点将是，资本主义没有崩溃。这个论点目前并不流行。2008年的市场崩溃令人们开始质疑世界金融体系的稳定性，引发了“大衰退”(Great Recession)和政府的大规模干预。

　　But after marshalling the figures for a while, it is a surprisingly easy case to make. Capitalism looks to be decidedly intact. As a favour to my opponents, then, here is why capitalism is not broken.

　　但对数据进行一番整理之后，这个论点出人意料地变得显而易见。资本主义似乎毫发无损。以下是我的理由，以便持相反论点者参考。

　　Economic systems should be measured by their results. And in terms of growth in gross domestic product, the charts show that capitalism remains in rude health. Global GDP rose throughout the crisis.

　　经济体系的好坏应由其结果来评判。就国内生产总值(GDP)来看，资本主义仍生机勃勃。全球GDP在危机期间仍保持增长。

　　That was thanks to the rise of the developing world, which will this year overtake the developed world, suggesting that the world’s unequal wealth distribution can correct itself under capitalism. If we look only at the countries that were in the developed club before the crisis, the picture is little different. GDP dipped in one year, 2009, and has grown ever since. The “Great Recession” was the worst that capitalism has suffered since the war ? previously, growth in GDP per head in western Europe and the US had been uninterrupted since 1945, according to massive historical data compiled by the late Angus Maddison ? and it was not that bad.

　　这应归功于发展中世界的崛起(发展中世界今年将超过发达世界)，显示世界财富分配不均的情况在资本主义制度下可以自我纠正。如果我们只看危机前已跻身发达国家“俱乐部”的国家，情况会略有不同。GDP在2009年这一年大幅下降，在那之后又一直增长。这次“大衰退”是资本主义战后遭遇的最严重的一次衰退――已故的安格斯•麦迪森(Angus Maddison)汇编的大量历史数据显示，在此之前，西欧和美国的人均GDP增长自1945年起没有间断过。而“大衰退”的情况其实并没有那么糟。

　　That recession had a deeper impact on global trade, with global exports dropping 26 per cent in the 12 months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Trade, or more recently “globalisation”, makes capitalism tick.

　　“大衰退”对全球贸易的打击更为沉重――2008年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后的一年时间里，全球出口额累计下降26%。而资本主义的正常运行靠的就是贸易，或者说最近的“全球化”。

　　But the subsequent rebound was instant. Since cratering in the summer of 2009, world trade volumes have risen by 49 per cent, says the International Monetary Fund.

　　但贸易很快反弹。国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，2009年夏季触底之后，全球贸易额如今已累计上涨49%。

　　That brought it to a new peak. In the 13 years since the turn of the millennium alone, a period when two asset bubbles imploded in the west, global exports have risen 212 per cent.

　　这意味着，全球贸易额已再次创下新高。仅就本世纪的13年而言，全球出口额已累计上涨212%，在此期间，西方还经历了两次资产泡沫破裂。

　　So the speed of the rebound is breathtaking. Whatever system the world is using, it is hard to say that it is “broken”.

　　这样看来，贸易反弹的速度是惊人的。不论如今主导世界的是何种制度，我们都很难说这种制度已经“崩溃”。

　　Ignoring results, maybe it is possible to argue that this was only achieved by abandoning capitalism. It is the last resort of many debaters to fall back on quibbling over definitions.

　　如果忽略结果，或许我们可以辩称，贸易迅速反弹完全是靠抛弃资本主义实现的。在定义上斤斤计较是许多辩论者的最后一招。

　　Capitalism had no Marx to frame it. Much is left ambiguous. For example, is China capitalist, as it appears to many, or, as its ruling party still describes itself, communist?

　　资本主义没有马克思主义那样的理论框架。许多定义都很模糊。比如说，现在的中国是许多人认为的资本主义国家，还是中共仍然坚称的共产主义国家?