Most people aren't cut out for value investing, because human nature shrinks from pain,' the money manager Jean-Marie Eveillard told me this past week. His words are a reminder that making money on cheap stocks -- the goal of every value investor -- is harder than it sounds and can take years to play out.
理财经理基恩•马里•艾维拉德(Jean-Marie Eveillard)不久前告诉我：“多数人天生就不适合进行价值投资，因为畏惧痛苦是人类的本性。”这番话提醒我们，通过低估值股票赚钱──这一所有价值投资者的目标──听起来容易做起来难，有时看到这种策略开花结果需要多年的等待。
Lately, value investing has seemed easy. Over the past year, the Russell 1000 Value Index, a yardstick of cheap stocks with sluggish expected earnings, is up 19%, compared with 11% for pricier 'growth' stocks and 15% for the full Russell 1000 index of big U.S. stocks. The public has started to notice: Mutual funds specializing in large value stocks took in $2.4 billion in January.
近来，价值投资似乎是件很容易的事情。过去一年间，价值型股票基准指数罗素1000价值类指数(Russell 1000 Value Index)飙升了19%，而同期罗素1000成长类指数(Russell 1000 Growth Index)上涨11%，追踪全美市值最大的1000家公司股票的罗素1000指数(Russell 1000 Index)上涨15%。一般情况下，价值型股票的收益预期相对较低，而成长型股票的股价较高。公众开始注意到：今年1月份，投资于高市值价值型股票的共同基金共吸纳资金24亿美元。
But as Mr. Eveillard warns, the long-term rewards don't go to people who think value investing is easy. Superior returns can be earned only by those who know that it is hard -- and stay put.
但正如艾维拉德所警告的那样，认为价值投资易如反掌的投资者不可能获得长期的投资回报。只有那些认识到价值投资难以掌控、但仍坚持不懈的投资者才能获得高收益。
Take it from Mr. Eveillard. From 1979 through 2004, he was the lead manager of the SoGen International Fund (now First Eagle Global). Over that period, the fund earned an average of 15.8% annually, versus 11.3% for the MSCI World Index of global stocks -- one of the widest and longest margins of outperformance on record.
艾维拉德的投资经历就是最好的证明。1979年至2004年间，他一直担任SoGen国际基金(SoGen International Fund)的首席经理人，该基金现已更名为第一老鹰全球基金(First Eagle Global Fund)。在他任职期间，该基金的平均年化收益率达15.8%，同期摩根士丹利资本国际全球股票指数(MSCI World Index of global stocks)的增幅为11.3%──这是历史上该基金涨势最久、表现最好的盈利记录。
But in the late 1990s, 'new economy' stocks -- think Internet startups -- were hot. Mr. Eveillard owned the old economy: railway, gold-mining and Japanese insurance companies. His fund trailed the index by 25 percentage points in 1998.
但是上世纪90年代末期，以互联网新兴企业股票为代表的“新经济”股票一度炙手可热。而艾维拉德持有的则是“传统经济”股票，诸如铁路类股、金矿类股以及日本保险公司类股。1998年，这只由他管理的基金的表现落后于摩根士丹利资本国际全球股票指数25个百分点。
'After one bad year investors were upset,' he recalls. 'After two they were mad, and after three they were gone.' Between 1997 and early 2000, investors yanked out two-thirds of the fund's assets -- and then missed out on its later years of superb performance.
他回忆说：“经历了基金表现不佳的第一年，投资者不太高兴;第二年过后，投资者气得发疯;第三年过去了，他们纷纷撤离了这只基金。”在1997年至2000 年初的这段时间里，投资者的撤资使该基金的资产规模减少了三分之二──接下来的故事是，他们也错过了随后数年该基金的卓越表现。
The fund industry has long marketed the chimera of 'consistency,' the idea that a great stock picker can always earn higher returns than the market. Investors who buy into this myth often sell in a panic as soon as the next crash proves that no stock picker can always outperform.
长期以来，基金业一直都在鼓吹“战无不胜”的黄粱美梦，宣称杰出的职业选股人可以一直获得高于市场平均水准的回报率。而一旦下次股市危机来临，事实证明没有哪位职业选股人能够永远跑赢大盘，那些曾经相信“战无不胜”神话的投资者这时往往都恐慌抛售。
Over the decade ended Dec. 31, value funds specializing in large stocks returned an average of 6.7% annually. But the typical investor in those funds earned just 5.5% annually, according to Russel Kinnel, director of fund research at Morningstar.
截至2012年12月31日的10年间，专门投资高市值股票的价值型股票基金取得的平均年化收益率为6.7%。但晨星公司(Morningstar)基金研究部门主管罗素•金奈尔(Russel Kinnel)表示，投资这些基金的价值型股票投资者在此期间获得的平均年化收益率只有5.5%。
That is partly because many investors bailed out after these funds lost an average of nearly 37% in 2008; the subsequent rebound was captured only by those who stuck around. 'Too many investors tend to think that [value] strategies are flawless or 'bearproof,'' Mr. Kinnel says -- and then sell out in shock when they realize the strategies aren't.
其中有部分原因归结于，在2008年该类基金平均贬值将近37%之后，众多投资者纷纷大举撤资;只有那些坚定不移的投资者才最终捕捉到了随之而来的反弹。金奈尔表示，“有太多的投资者倾向于认为价值投资策略完美无瑕或长胜不败”──当意识到事实并非如此的时候，他们便大惊失色，接着迅速抛售。
Summit Street Capital Management, an investment partnership in New York, recently analyzed a group of value investors with long records of superior returns and found that even the best underperformed one-third to 40% of the time. 'It's hard not to get shaken out unless you understand that and have conviction,' says Summit Street partner Jennifer Wallace.
位于纽约的合伙制投资公司Summit Street Capital Management最近进行了一项研究，对一组长期以来取得回报率较高的价值投资者进行了分析。研究结果显示，在三分之一至40%的时段中，即便最佳投资者的投资表现也不及大盘。Summit Street的合伙人詹妮弗•华莱士(Jennifer Wallace)表示：“除非你明白这一点，并对此坚信不疑，否则你很难不被动摇。”
