NORTH KOREAN invective has always been colourful. But the old threats to turn Seoul into a bulbada―“sea of fire”―suddenly look bland compared with the new rhetoric. Having peered out through binoculars at the South Korean border island of Baengnyeong on March 11th, the North’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, was quoted as telling his troops to “break the waists of the crazy enemies” and “cut their windpipes”, to show them “what real war is like”. Baengnyeong is home to almost 5,000 civilians, as well as South Korean military units, which makes the bluster more alarming. Mr Kim went so far as to point out priority targets, including radar posts and rocket sites, said KCNA, the North Korean news agency.

　　北朝鲜的抨击言论一贯非常生动。但与该国新近使用的辞藻相比，以往屡屡使用的要将首尔变成“一片火海”的威胁话语突然显得有些平庸了。3月11日，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩用双筒望远镜观察了韩国边界岛屿白翎岛，随后对人民军官兵发表了讲话。据报道他在讲话中命令官兵们“折断疯狂敌人的腰”和“割断他们的喉咙”，让他们瞧瞧“真正的战争是什么样子”。白翎岛上住着大约5千平民和一些韩国军队，因而他的这番咆哮让人顿生寒意。据朝鲜中央通讯社报道，金正恩甚至明确指出了要重点打击的目标，其中包括雷达站与火箭炮阵地。

　　These are not normal times. The North Korean leadership has reacted bitterly to the latest round of UN sanctions, imposed after its third nuclear test of February 12th. China’s support of the sanctions, which target financial transactions suspected of supporting the North’s nuclear programme, may have increased Pyongyang’s sense of isolation. This week, America singled out North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank for sanctions, because of its suspected role in nuclear armament.

　　而眼下是一个非常时期。在今年2月12日朝鲜进行了第三次核试验后，联合国对其进行了新的制裁。朝鲜领导层对此作出了愤怒的反应。此次制裁针对疑似资助朝鲜核试验的金融交易，而中国支持制裁的立场也许使朝鲜感到更加孤立。本周，美国又将朝鲜外贸银行列入制裁名单，理由是该银行在朝鲜的核武开发中扮演着可疑的角色。

　　To add to the tensions, annual joint military exercises between America and South Korea, known as Key Resolve, started on March 11th, involving troop manoeuvres near the demilitarised zone that divides the two countries. North Korea has said it plans to hold its own drills. It has also unilaterally disavowed the 1953 armistice that halted the Korean war, and refused to answer a military hotline set up between the North and South. Reportedly, the regime has also begun camouflaging civilian vehicles and sheltering some ordinary citizens into tunnels, sending a message to its own population that it is now on a war footing.

　　而 3月11日开始的被称为“关键决心”的韩美联合军演使局面更加紧张。这个军演每年举行一次，部分演习地靠近分割南北朝鲜的非军事区。朝鲜声称也要举行军演，而且单方废除了朝鲜战争的停战协定，拒绝接听南北军事热线电话。据报道，朝鲜已经开始对民用车辆进行伪装，让部分普通市民进入防空洞，向国内民众传递出一种朝鲜现在已经进入战争状态的信息。

　　This is not the first time the North has threatened war―though its recent nuclear test and rocket launch appear to have added to its swagger. In American policy circles, where the intensity of the latest North Korean tirades has raised some alarm, there still appears to be a prevailing belief that the regime is not sufficiently suicidal to enter a full-scale conflict. The danger of unplanned escalation, however, has increased. One former negotiator for the South notes that Mr Kim “does not have much experience”, but may be emboldened by the perceived “edge” he derives from his nuclear-weapons programme. Mr Kim also may feel the need to earn some credibility with his armed forces, given that lack of experience.

　　这已经不是朝鲜第一次发出战争威胁了。然而朝鲜最近进行的核试验与火箭发射还是增添了其底气。在美国决策层中，尽管朝鲜最近言语抨击的频率与强度引起了一些警觉，但大多数人似乎仍然认为朝鲜当局不会挑起一场全面战争，认为这无异于自杀。然而这增加了一旦局面失控而事前准备不足的危险。一位曾代表韩国与朝鲜打过交道的人士指出：金正恩经验不多，但自感从其核武项目中拥有了“优势”地位，因而胆子也许会变大起来。由于缺乏资历，金正恩也许会感到更需要赢得军队的信任。

　　Complicating the situation is the fact of new leadership in South Korea, which threatens to raise the stakes if there is an attack. A spokesman for the defence ministry said on March 12th that any provocation would be met with a response that ensured the North will “suffer far more”. The former president, Lee Myung-bak, faced criticism for failing to order vigorous punishment of the North in November 2010, following a deadly attack on Yeonpyeong, another border island held by the South. The new president, Park Geun-hye, will want to be careful to avoid making a similar impression of weakness.

　　使局面更加复杂的是，韩国新政府威胁如果韩国受到攻击将加倍还击。3月12日一位韩国国防部的发言人称，南方遭到任何挑衅都会回击，要让北方受到“加倍的损失”。2010年11月延坪岛(韩国占据的另一个边界岛屿)遭到了猛烈的炮火攻击，而前总统李明博没有下令对北方进行有力的惩罚，因而陷入指责声中。新总统朴槿惠将小心翼翼地避免给人留下类似的软弱印象。

　　Ms Park has her own problems, too. Bipartisan wrangling over her ministerial appointees, and her contested decision to create a new “super-ministry” that would usurp some of the responsibility for online and cable media from the Korean Communications Commission, have effectively frustrated her first weeks in office. Opponents have taken to calling hers a “vegetable government”; it is incapable of doing anything, they imply. North Korean leaders are no doubt watching this with interest.

　　朴槿惠自身也面临着难题。在她的内阁组成人选上两党出现了激烈的争吵;她要设立一个新的“大部”的决定也引起了争议，使她就任总统后的第一个星期就遇到了挫折。根据她的设想，这个“大部”将接管韩国放送通信委员会(Korean Communications Commission)在网络媒体和有线电视这两个领域的职责。反对派人士已经开始将她领导的政府称之为“植物人政府”，意指政府完全失能。北朝鲜的领导人们无疑会饶有兴趣地关注这件事。

　　Meanwhile, others in Ms Park’s conservative Saenuri party are creating waves. A member of the national assembly, Chung Mong-joon, a former presidential candidate himself, has called for South Korea to consider developing its own nuclear deterrent. He also said this week that the planned transfer of operational control of South Korean forces from America by 2015 should be abandoned.

　　与此同时，朴槿惠所在的保守的新国家党内部也有人正在掀起波澜。郑梦准(Chung Mong-joon)是一位韩国国会议员，也曾是一名总统候选人。他呼吁南朝鲜也要考虑发展自己的核威慑能力。他本周还说，原定在2015年将韩国军队的战时作战指挥权由美国移交给韩国的协定应该废止。

　　What will Mr Kim’s regime do next? The talk is of a localised provocation (in the manner of the Yeonpyeong incident), or perhaps some sort of creative, “asymmetrical” attack. He may choose to wait until the ten-day military drills are completed on March 21st. A further nuclear test or rocket launch cannot be ruled out. He appears to have raised the rhetoric, especially at home, to such a pitch that it may become very hard to sit still and do nothing.

　　金正恩当局下一步会怎样做?人们猜测他可能会进行一次局部挑衅(如同延坪岛事件那样)，也许会发动某种有创意的“非对称”攻击。他可能会等到这场为期十天的韩美军事演习于3月21日结束后再行动。也不排除他继续进行核试验或火箭发射的可能。他声嘶力竭地发出了高调的战争威胁(当然主要是喊给朝鲜国内人听)，但如此一来他想要罢手恐怕也很难。