Europe’s economic situation is viewed with far less concern than was the case six, 12 or 18 months ago. Policy makers in Europe far prefer engaging the United States on a possible trade and investment agreement to more discussion on financial stability and growth. However, misplaced confidence can be dangerous if it reduces pressure for necessary policy adjustments.

　　与6个月、12个月或18个月前相比，欧洲的经济形势远不是那么让人担心了。欧洲的政策制定者现在肯定更愿意与美国就一项可能的贸易投资协定展开磋商，而不是进一步讨论金融稳定与增长。不过，如果这种不该有的信心降低了实施必要政策调整的压力，结果可能是危险的。

　　There is a striking difference between financial crises in memory and financial crises as they actually play out. In memory, they are a concatenation of disasters. But as they play out, the norm is moments of panic separated by lengthy stretches of apparent calm. It was eight months from the South Korean crisis to the Russian default of 1998, six months from Bear Stearns’ demise to Lehman Brothers’ fall, and there were several 30 per cent stock market rallies between 1929 and 1933.

　　人们记忆中的金融危机与现实中上演的金融危机有着显著区别。人们记忆中的金融危机，就是连续爆发的一系列灾难。而现实中上演的金融危机，往往是在多个恐慌时刻之间穿插着漫长而明显的平静期。从韩国爆发金融危机到1998年俄罗斯出现债务违约，间隔了8个月时间;从贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)垮台到雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产，间隔了6个月时间;此外，在1929年至1933年间，股市还曾数次反弹30%。

　　Is Europe out of the woods? Certainly a number of key credit spreads, particularly in Spain and Italy, have narrowed substantially. But it is far from clear that market conditions have improved. Investors are still limite. Restrictions limit the ability of pessimistic investors to short European debt. Regulations enable local banks to treat government debt as risk free. This allows them to access funding from the European Central Bank on non-market terms. And there is the suspicion that in extremis the central bank would come in strongly and bailout bond holders. Remissions are sometimes followed by cures and sometimes by relapses.

　　欧洲现在是否已经脱离险境?当然，多个关键的信贷息差(尤其是西班牙和意大利的信贷息差)已大幅收窄。但说到市场状况是否有所改善，这件事还远没有那么明朗。投资者依然寥寥无几。限制性规定抑制了悲观投资者做空欧洲债务的能力。监管规定使得各地的银行能把政府债务当作无风险资产。这让它们能够以非市场化的条款获得欧洲央行(ECB)的资金。有人怀疑，在紧急关头，欧洲央行会强力介入、纾困债券持有者。债务减免有时能解决问题，有时结果只是故态复萌。

　　A worrisome indicator in much of Europe is the tendency of stock and bond prices to move together. In healthy countries, when sentiment improves stock prices rise and bond prices fall, as risk premiums decline and interest rates rise. In unhealthy economies, as in much of Europe today, bonds are seen as risk assets, so they move just like stocks in response to changes in sentiment.

　　欧洲多国一个令人担心的迹象是，股票与债券价格有联动的趋势。在健康的经济体中，如果市场情绪好转，股价会上涨、债券价格会下跌，因为风险溢价下滑而利率会上升。在不健康的经济体(如当今许多欧洲国家)中，债券被当作风险资产;因此，当市场情绪发生变化时，债券价格就与股价同向变动。

　　Perhaps it should not be surprising that Europe still looks to be in serious trouble. Growth has been dismal, with eurozone gross domestic product still below its 2007 level. Forecasts call for little if any growth this year.

　　欧洲看起来仍处在重大困境之中，这一点或许不应该令人感到意外。其经济增长一直乏力，欧元区本地生产总值(GDP)仍低于2007年时的水平。预测显示，今年欧洲经济即便有增长，增幅也将极其有限。

　　For every Ireland, where there is a sense that a corner is being turned, there is a France, where the sustainability of current policy is increasingly questionable.

　　对每个像爱尔兰这样似乎形势有所好转的国家而言，都有一个像法国那样现行政策可持续性日益受质疑的国家与之对应。

　　The controversy surrounding the decision by European authorities to conduct a bail-in that imposes levies on Cypriot bank depositors gives an indication of the degree of fragility in Europe. The idea that converting a small portion of deposits into equity claims in an economy with a population barely over 1m could be a source of systemic risk suggests the current situation rests on a hair trigger.

　　欧洲当局决定展开内部纾困(bail-in)，向塞浦路斯银行储户征税。这一决定引发的争议突显出欧洲经济何其脆弱。已经有人认为，在一个人口刚过百万的经济体中，将存款的一小部分转化为股权，或会引发系统性风险。这一观点表明，现在的紧张局势到了一触即发的地步。

　　All of this is compounded by political uncertainty. Italy’s election was inconclusive even by its own standards. Scandals and staggeringly high unemployment are taking their toll in Spain. France is much calmer about its situation than are many outside observers. And Germany’s primary concern is avoiding turmoil before federal elections in September. There is little doubt that, given a choice, all eurozone countries would prefer almost any kind of macroeconomic unorthodoxy to the breakdown of monetary union. But this is insufficient. There is the serious risk that as nations pursue parochial concerns, the political and economic situation will deteriorate to a point that is not remediable.

　　政治不确定性令这一切雪上加霜。即便按意大利自己的标准，其最近的大选结果也可谓一团乱麻。丑闻和高得吓人的失业率给西班牙造成很大拖累。法国不认为自己的形势有多么令人不安，但外界观察人士的看法却与此迥异。德国的首要问题是在9月份的联邦选举前避免出现混乱。无疑，如果有选择，欧元区国家宁愿采取几乎任何非正统宏观经济措施，也不愿让货币联盟瓦解。但这还不够。它们面临的重大风险是，随着各国纷纷寻求解决各自的问题，欧元区的政治经济局势将持续恶化、直至无可救药。

　　Structural reform in the most troubled economies is essential, and the work of building a stronger institutional foundation for monetary union must go on. But the key to success will be the recognition that in economic policy ? as in life ? what is good for one is not good for all.

　　处境最艰难的经济体必须实施结构改革，为货币联盟构建更强健制度基础的工作必须开展下去。但成功的关键是要认识到，在经济政策领域(正如在人生中一样)，对某个个体有益的政策未必有益于全体。