Fresh from his “surprise” election as president of China last week, Xi Jinping is about to set off on his first foreign trip. Later this week, he will travel to Moscow. The choice is a traditional one, and redolent of the Cold War, when Russia and China were the twin pillars of the Communist world.

　　习近平刚于上周“出人意料地”当选为中国国家主席，就马上要展开当选后的首次外事访问。本周晚些时候，习近平将访问莫斯科。这个选择很传统，充满冷战的味道。冷战期间，俄罗斯和中国是共产主义世界的两大支柱。

　　Back then, China was the junior partner in the relationship. These days, although the Russians would be reluctant to acknowledge it, China is the more important partner ? simply because of the sheer size and dynamism of its economy.

　　当时在这种关系中，中国是位居次席的伙伴。如今，尽管俄罗斯不愿承认，但中国确实是这一伙伴关系中更为重要的一方――这完全归因于中国经济的庞大规模与活力。

　　That said, there is a time lag in the way the two countries behave on the international stage. Russia is no longer a superpower, but still has the instinct to demand a central role in the settlement of the big international issues ? just look at the role that the Russians have assumed over Syria. By contrast, China is an emerging superpower, but is still loath to take the lead on international issues outside of its immediate neighbourhood.

　　尽管如此，两国在国际舞台上的表现却与其实力存在一定时滞。尽管俄罗斯不再是一个超级大国，但它内心深处仍渴望在解决重大国际问题方面发挥核心作用――只需看看俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上扮演的角色便可知一斑。相比之下，尽管中国是个新兴超级大国，但它却不愿在本国周边地区之外的国际问题上出头。

　　It is quite likely, however, that Xi Jinping’s period in power will see China beginning to shed its inhibitions. China is already the world’s second largest economy, and is likely to surpass the US in the next decade. That will give China the weight and the confidence to be more assertive. It is also creating a network of global economic ties that China may feel the need to nurture and defend.

　　但在习近平任内，中国很可能会逐渐放开手脚。中国已是全球第二大经济体，未来10年很可能超越美国。这将增强中国的影响力，并让它有信心采取更强硬的立场。中国经济的发展还在全球编织出一张经济关系网，它或许会觉得有必要培育并捍卫这一网络。

　　One development to look out for is whether China begins to play a more active role in the Middle East. At the moment, of course, the US is the pre-eminent outside power ? which is why all eyes are on President Obama’s upcoming visit to Israel. But as the US’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy diminishes, the Iraqi withdrawal proceeds apace and Pentagon budget cuts begin to bite, the US role in the region may begin to diminish. China’s interests in the region, however, are only likely to grow.

　　需要留意的一件事是，中国是否开始在中东发挥更加积极的作用。现阶段而言，美国当然还是中东地区最重要的外部大国，这就是为什么奥巴马(Obama)总统即将对以色列展开的访问会受到如此之多的关注。但随着美国对中东能源的依赖程度逐渐降低、从伊拉克撤军的步伐加快、以及国防预算削减开始产生影响，美国在中东的影响力可能会开始减弱。而中国在该地区的利益只会有增无减。

　　The Chinese are already the largest customers for Saudi oil and have a keen interest in the energy resources of Iran and the other Gulf states. Given their strategic interests in the region, at some point the Chinese may want to take a more active role in shaping its politics. Much further down the line, it might make more sense for the Chinese navy to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Gulf ? rather than the Americans.

　　中国业已成为沙特石油的最大客户，并对伊朗和其他海湾国家的能源抱有浓厚兴趣。考虑到中国在中东的战略利益，也许有一天它会热衷于在塑造中东政治方面发挥更积极作用。再往后，或许由中国海军来保障海湾地区航行自由要比由美国海军来保障更符合逻辑。

　　That development probably won’t happen in President Xi’s time in office. But China is likely to become more outward- facing ? and not just because of its economic interests. Xi is also unusually well-travelled for a Chinese leaders. He lived in Iowa for a while, as a young man. He has travelled extensively in Europe and Latin America. And he is also a big fan of Australia ? and has visited every province there, bar Tasmania. President Hu Jintao was a pretty anonymous public face for China. Xi may be different.

　　在习近平主席任内，形势可能不会发展到这一步。但中国很可能会变得更关注外部世界――而且不仅仅是出于经济利益考虑。就一名中国领导人而言，习近平游历之丰富可谓不同寻常。他年轻时曾在爱荷华州住过一段时间。他还曾遍游欧洲和拉丁美洲。习近平也很喜欢澳大利亚，访问过该国除塔斯马尼亚省以外的所有省份。胡锦涛展现出的中国公共形象相当低调。习近平可能截然不同。