Put together Asia’s richest man, the world’s third-biggest container port and a bitter strike now in its fourth week, and a 4 per cent share price fall looks like an under-reaction. Striking dockworkers this weekend protested outside the home of Li Ka-shing, whom they hold responsible, while one of his senior officials likened their tactics to those of the Cultural Revolution. Gauging the long-term significance of strikes is never easy, but fights like this one deserve attention.

　　把亚洲首富、世界第三大集装箱港口和目前已进入第四周的激烈罢工行动放在一起，4%的股价下跌似乎反应不大。罢工的码头工人上周末在李嘉诚家门口举行抗议，认为他对此负有责任。李嘉诚手下一名高管则将工人们的行为与文革相提并论。衡量罢工的长期影响从来不是易事，但这样的斗争值得关注。

　　Maybe some investors are lost trying to understand who is being affected. The strikers are employees of two stevedoring groups who contract to a subsidiary of HPH Trust, the beneficiary of the Hong Kong and Shenzhen port assets of Hutchison Whampoa, the conglomerate chaired by Mr Li. HPHT, which was spun out of Hutchison Whampoa two years ago, has lost 4 per cent since the strike began. Hutchison Whampoa, which holds 28 per cent of the trust, is off less than 2 per cent.

　　也许投资者对于谁正受到影响感到一头雾水。罢工者是从和记港口信托(HPHT)一家子公司承接合同的两个装卸集团的雇员，HPHT是和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa)旗下香港和深圳港口资产的受益人，而李嘉诚是和记黄埔的主席。HPHT是两年前从和记黄埔剥离出来的，自罢工开始股价已下跌4%。拥有该信托28%股份的和记黄埔股价下跌近2%。

　　Financially, the industrial action has not yet made a big dent. Handling capacity is back above 80 per cent, The hit could be less than 1 per cent of full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, says Citi. If the strikers achieve anything near their 20 per cent demands ? HPHT has offered 7 per cent ? the higher wage bill could lift costs by 4 per cent, according to CLSA. That starts to eat into the flexibility of contract labor, which makes up about two-thirds of HPHT’s Hong Kong workforce and more than a third of costs. It usually pays investors to wait and see where strikes settle.

　　从财务上看，此次劳工行动尚未带来较大打击。港口装卸能力已恢复到80%以上。据花旗(Citi)称，损失可能不到全年利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利(Ebitda)的1%。根据里昂证券(CLSA)的数据，如果罢工工人能争取到接近他们要求的20%涨薪(HPHT的开价是7%)，则上涨后的工资账单可能使总成本增加4%。这已开始抵消合同工的灵活性，他们占HPHT在香港劳动力的三分之二，也占其劳动力成本的逾三分之一。通常，投资者观望并等待罢工平息更有利。

　　But HPHT’s subsidiary summed up the risks when it called on strikers to understand the challenges the port faces. Investors should look at those too. A rising cost base on top of China’s slowing export growth is something to pay attention to.

　　但HPHT的子公司号召罢工工人理解港口所面临的挑战，恰恰总结了相关风险。投资者也应对此作出考量。在中国出口增长放缓的基础上，成本基础不断上涨值得留意。