MPAcc考研备考经验！经管类书籍推荐：《The Signal and the Noise》

考研备考经验：经管类书籍

《The Signal and the Noise》

作 者：Nate Silver

推荐人：Samuel Chun(Assistant Dean of Executive Programs and Professor of Management Practice at the Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis)

推荐理由：Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and lay people mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones.

考研备考经验：经管类书籍

But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

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