Three American scholars won the Nobel Prize in economics for pioneering work in financial markets that has transformed portfolio management and asset pricing and launched the study of how emotions affect investment decisions.
名美国学者因为在金融市场做出的先驱性工作获得诺贝尔经济学奖。他们的研究令投资组合管理和资产定价等的状况发生改变，并开始了情绪如何影响投资决策的研究。
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on Monday honored Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen of the University of Chicago and Robert Shiller of Yale University, citing their complementary but independent breakthroughs on 'empirical analysis of asset prices.'
瑞典皇家科学院(The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)周一将这一奖项授予了芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的尤金?法马(Eugene Fama)、拉斯?彼得?汉森(Lars Peter Hansen)和耶鲁大学(Yale University)罗伯特?席勒(Robert Shiller)，称他们在资产价格的实证分析方面做出了互相补充且互相独立的突破性成就。
The laureates focused on how prices are set for stocks and bonds, but their findings have implications far beyond financial markets. Every corner of the macroeconomy is affected by the risk tolerance-as well as rational and irrational acts-that spur individuals and corporations to invest or save.
三位获奖者的研究主要专注于股票和债券等资产的价格如何确定，但他们的发现对于远处金融市场之外的领域也有意义。宏观经济的每一个角落都受到风险容忍度 (risk tolerance)――以及理性和非理性行为――的影响，这对个人和企业构成刺激，促使其做出投资或储蓄决策。
'Nobody's scratching their heads over this one. They've all been on the short list for many years, ' said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist currently on sabbatical at Columbia University. 'The interesting thing is how the three are connected.'
纽约大学(New York University)的经济学家格特勒(Mark Gertler)说，这次的经济学奖得主都不必费什么思量，他们已经在最终候选名单上很多年了;有意思的是他们这三个人之间的联系。格特勒现在哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)休假。
The 74-year-old Mr. Fama is seen by many as the father of modern finance, for his 1960s-era work on the theory of efficient markets. After meeting with little success in stock picking, Mr. Fama found that markets were efficient in a day-to-day or month-to-month time frame. They absorbed the latest information swiftly and seamlessly and yielded accurate asset prices. The conclusion upended notions of trying to profit from timing the market or stock picking-and gave rise to the index-funds industry.
在很多人的眼中，凭借其在上世纪60年代在有效市场理论方面所做的研究，现年74岁的法马可以说是现代金融学之父。在选股方面鲜有胜绩之后，法马发现市场在每日或每月的时间框架内是有效的。市场快速、毫无遗漏地吸收了最新信息，并由此产生出准确的资产定价。这一结论颠覆了通过抢占市场先机或选股而获利的理论，并催生了指数基金这一行业。
Twenty years later, Mr. Shiller found that markets' short-term efficiency was less enduring over longer periods. He examined why asset prices were too volatile to be justified by fundamental information, such as dividends. In spans of three to five years, prices moved for a host of reasons, such as investors' risk aversion-or their optimism or pessimism. The field of behavioral economics was born as scholars attempted to tease out what was behind investors' shifting risk tolerances and decisions.
20 年之后，席勒发现市场在短期内是有效的，但在较长期内的有效性不够持久。他对资产的价值波动太大无法用基本面信息(比如股息)予以解释这一现象进行了审视。在三年到五年的时间段内，资产价格发生变动的原因非常多，比如投资者厌恶风险，或是他们的乐观或悲观情绪。在学者们试图弄清楚投资者在风险容忍度和投资决策为什么如此多变的过程中，行为经济学这一学科诞生了。
At the same time, Mr. Hansen was working on questions about market predictability, and came up with a tool for studying changes in asset pricing. That led to his Generalized Method of Moments-an econometric tool that today is a standard economics theorem, applicable throughout the field and not just to financial markets.
与此同时，汉森还在研究有关市场可预见性的问题，并提出了一个用于研究资产价格变化的工具。由此得出了他的“一般化动差法”(Generalized Method of Moments)，这是一个经济学工具，如今成为标准的经济学原理，应用于整个经济领域，不仅仅限于金融市场。
Mr. Hansen's theorem is 'absolutely spectacular, ' said John Cochrane, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. 'It looks really complicated but he's kind of taken it to another dimension...and seen how gloriously simple it is.'
芝加哥大学布斯商学院(Booth School of Business)的教授科克伦(John Cochrane)说，汉森的理论绝对是惊人的，它看上去真的很复杂，然而他在某种程度上将它提升到了另一个维度，并洞彻了它是多么简单。
At 60, Mr. Hansen is the youngest of Monday's winners. 'I've been feeling old recently, ' he said. 'But this gives me the feeling of being young.' He said his work on the theorem dates back to when he was a graduate student and starting out as a professor-and being mentored by 2011 Nobelists Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims.
现年60岁的汉森是今年的三位诺贝尔奖获奖者中最年轻的。他说，我近来已经觉得自己老了，但这给了我一种年轻的感觉。他说他对这一原理的研究可以追溯到念研究生时和担任教授之初――以及得到2011年获诺贝尔奖的萨金特(Thomas J. Sargent)和西姆斯(Christopher A. Sims)辅导时。
Mr. Cochrane, who is Mr. Fama's son-in-law as well as his colleague, said Monday that after hearing from the Nobel prize panel, his father-in-law resumed his regular routine, teaching a class Monday at Chicago, his professional home of 54 years. Although Mr. Fama has exchanged tennis and windsurfing for golf, he doesn't show any signs of slowing his pace, Mr. Cochrane said.
科克伦是法马的女婿，也是他的同事。科克伦周一说，他的岳父收到诺贝尔奖委员会的消息后仍然如常工作，周一在芝大上了一节课。法马在芝大从事专业研究已有54年。科克伦说，虽然法马已经放弃了网球和风帆冲浪运动，改打高尔夫球，但他没有显示出任何放慢步伐的迹象。
Mr. Shiller, 67, is one of the creators of the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks changes in residential values across the U.S. He is working on a book with George Akerlof, who shared the 2001 Nobel, to be titled 'Phishing for Phools, ' about manipulation and deception in economics, Mr. Shiller said. Messrs. Shiller and Akerlof co-wrote 'Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.'
67 岁的席勒是标准普尔/凯斯-席勒住房价格指数(Standard &Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index)的创建者之一，该指数跟踪美国住房价格的变化。席勒说，他目前正与乔治?阿克洛夫(George Akerlof)合写一本书，题为《钓鱼傻瓜》(Phishing for Phools)，内容是关于经济中的操纵和欺诈行为。阿克洛夫是2001年诺贝尔奖的获奖者之一。席勒和阿克洛夫曾经合写过《动物精神：看透全球经济的新思维》("Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism)。
Mr. Shiller, who has kept a diary since the age of 12, said in January he plans to teach a free online introductory course on financial markets through Coursera. There will be some emphasis on behavioral finance in the class, he said.
从12岁起就一直写日记的席勒今年1月说，他计划通过Coursera在网上免费教授一门关于金融市场的入门课程。他说，这门课将侧重于行为金融学。
Mr. Shiller said that after being notified early Monday by the prize committee, he called his brother in his hometown of Detroit, where the Nobel announcement evidently hadn't spread. 'Did you hear the news?' he asked. His brother replied, 'The Tigers lost, ' referring to the Boston Red Sox come-from-behind win Sunday night.
席勒说，周一早间收到诺贝尔奖委员会的通知后，他打电话给在家乡底特律的哥哥，诺贝尔奖宣布的消息显然还没有传到那里。他问道，你听到新闻了吗。他哥哥回答说，(底特律)老虎队输了。他说的是波士顿红袜队(Boston Red Sox)周日晚上逆转取胜的消息。
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