The Ya’an earthquake comes as China wrestles with slower-than-expected growth and the risk of rising inflation. But the early signs are that the impact on the economy is likely to be limited.

　　雅安地震发生之际，中国正在努力应对经济增速慢于预期和通胀率上升的风险。但早期迹象表明，此次地震对经济的影响可能有限。

　　Sichuan is one of China’s most populous provinces and occupies a strategic location as the gateway to the rapidly developing west. But it still punches below its weight economically, with output of 2.1 trillion yuan ($340 billion) in 2011, equivalent to about 4% of the national total.

　　四川是中国人口最多的省份之一，同时也是通往迅速发展的中国西部地区的战略门户。但其作为人口大省的地位同其在中国经济中占据的权重并不匹配。四川2011年的经济产出为人民币2.1万亿元(约合3,400亿美元)，在中国经济总量中的占比约为4%。

　　Ya’an itself is some 120 kilometers from the provincial capital Chengdu, with an economy centered on tourism, agriculture, and natural resources including a panda research center that moved there after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. Local GDP in 2011 was just 35 billion yuan, a fraction of the regional total, according to data provider CEIC.

　　雅安距省会成都约120公里，其经济重心为旅游、农业和自然资源，其中包括2008年四川地震之后搬到那里的大熊猫研究中心。数据提供商CEIC的记录显示，2011年雅安的本地生产总值(GDP)仅为人民币350亿元，只占区域经济总量的一小部分。

　　Sichuan’s massive 2008 earthquake cratered growth in provincial industrial output to 3.6% year-on-year in May of that year from 24.6% in April. Even then, national output growth was largely unchanged, and by August Sichuan had recovered close to previous levels.

　　四川雅安地震2008年的四川大地震令四川当年5月的省级工业总产值同比增幅从4月的24.6%骤降至3.6%。即便如此，全国工业总产值的同比增速大致维持不变，至当年8月四川已经恢复至接近震前的水平。

　　With the Ya’an earthquake on a smaller scale, the impact on output is likely to be smaller too. Industry in Ya’an itself appears to be limited, and so far there are few reports of consequences for firms elsewhere in the region Toyota Motor Corp. 7203.TO +0.92% stopped production at a plant in the province Saturday as a result of the quake, but said it would resume production Monday.

　　雅安地震的震级较低，地震对产出的影响可能也较小。雅安自身的产业规模有限，到目前为止鲜有地震给该地区其它地方企业造成重大影响的报道。受地震影响，丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)上周六暂停了其在四川一个工厂的生产，但表示周一将恢复生产。

　　Another potential concern is higher inflation. China’s food prices are threatening to rise again, and Sichuan accounts for 4.9% of China’s agricultural land. A disruption to supply could raise bills for China’s households. Again, the lesson from the 2008 earthquake is that the impact is likely to be limited. Back then neither national nor provincial consumer prices registered an impact from the earthquake.

　　另一个潜在担忧是通胀走高。中国的食品价格有可能再次升高，而四川的农业用地在全国占比为4.9%。农产品供应中断可能会提高中国家庭的支出。但2008年四川地震的经验告诉我们，这一影响同样可能有限。当年无论是全国还是四川的消费者价格指数(CPI)均未受到地震的严重影响。

　　Even if the immediate impact on output is limited, the regional economy could still benefit from the boost given by rebuilding. In 2009, China’s economy was hit by the global financial crisis, with growth slowing to 9.2% from 9.6% in 2008. But thanks in part to the boost to investment from rebuilding, Sichuan’s growth accelerated to 14.5% year on year, up from 11% in 2008.

　　即使地震对产出的短期影响有限，但震后重建对经济的拉动仍然可能令当地经济受益。2009年中国经济受全球金融危机冲击，经济增速从2008年的9.6%降至9.2%。但正是部分由于震后重建投资的拉动，四川当年的经济同比增速从2008年的11%升至14.5%。

　　“We’re bullish on Sichuan’s economy,” said Alistair Thornton, regional economist at IHS. “They are the pathway to China’s fastest growing region and they will continue to benefit from that. The earthquake is a tragedy, but it’s difficult to see it pushing development off course for long.”

　　IHS区域经济学家桑顿(Alistair Thornton)说，我们看好四川经济。四川是通往中国经济增速最快区域的通道，并还将受益于这一战略位置带来的优势。地震是一场悲剧，但地震难以在长期令当地经济发展偏离正常轨道。