中国的房地产泡沫

　　Beijing - Jack Rodman has cashed in on property busts from Los Angeles to Tokyo, buying and selling soured loans and counseling other investors. Now he's convinced the Beijing real estate market is about to tumble. Rodman figures about half of the city's commercial space is vacant, and to prove it he keeps a slide show of 55 empty office buildings in the Chinese capital on his computer. There are an additional dozen, he says, that he hasn't had time to photograph. "I took these pictures to try to impress upon people the massive amount of oversupply," says Rodman, president of Global Distressed Solutions, which advises investors on Chinese property.

　　全球不良资产解决方案公司总裁杰克·罗德曼(Jack Rodman)在洛杉矶和东京做房地产生意，业务包括买卖过期房贷和向投资者提供咨询服务。如今，他认为北京的房地产市场即将暴跌。罗德曼指出，北京约半数的商业房地产面积处于空置状态。为了证明这一点，他把北京城里55栋空置的写字楼拍成幻灯片放在自己的电脑上。他声称还有10多栋这样的写字楼尚未来得及拍照。罗德曼表示：“我拍这些照片的目的是想让人们明白供给已经严重过剩了。”

　　Much of the $1.4 trillion in loans made by Chinese banks last year—with considerable encouragement from officials aiming to boost growth—was spent on skyscrapers and other commercial property. Now empty buildings are sprouting across the mainland. Beijing had an office vacancy rate of 22.4% in the third quarter, the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by broker CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) (CBG). That figure doesn't include projects about to open, such as the 74-story China World Tower 3, Beijing's tallest building. "There's a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble under way," says James Chanos, founder of New York hedge fund Kynikos Associates. "And deflating that gently will be difficult at best."

　　中国银行去年提供了1.4万亿贷款，其中许多都用来修建摩天大楼等商业地产。如今，中国大陆到处是空置的楼宇。北京去年第三季度的写字楼空置率达到 22.4%，在房地产经纪商世邦魏理仕公司(CBRE)跟踪的103个市场中位列第九位。这一数字还不包括即将完工的工程，比如建成后将成为北京第一高楼的国贸三期74层大楼。纽约尼克斯联合基金公司创始人查诺斯声称：“(中国)出现了巨大的房地产泡沫，固定资产泡沫也已开始膨胀。即便是在最好地情况下也很难以温和的手段遏制泡沫膨胀。”

　　Worried Beijing policymakers are trying to choke off the supply of funds fueling the property boom. On Jan. 27, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the chief oversight body, called on banks to curb loan growth. They should "strictly" follow real estate lending policies, the commission said in a notice on its Web site. "The Chinese authorities are clearly trying to bring excessive bank lending under control," says Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia (MS).

　　忧心忡忡的中国政府正努力控制房地产投资。1月27日，中国银监会要求各银行限制贷款增长，“严格”遵循房地产贷款政策。摩根史坦利亚洲区总裁斯蒂芬·罗奇(Stephen Roach)表示：“中国当局显然正在努力控制过多的银行贷款。”

　　HIDDEN EXPOSURE

　　隐藏的风险

　　The central bank on Feb. 12 increased reserve requirements, the money banks must keep on hand to cover potential losses, for the second time this year. That should reduce the amount of money banks have available for new loans, helping to slow growth. Now some economists are speculating that the government could allow China's currency, the yuan, to appreciate against the dollar for the first time since July 2008. "They're close to moving the exchange rate. I think something's brewing," says Jim O'Neill, London-based chief global economist at Goldman Sachs (GS).

　　2月12日，中国央行今年第二次调高了银行准备金比率。这应该会有助于减缓贷款增速。一些经济学家如今预计，中国政府将会自2008年7月以来首次允许人民币兑美元升值。驻伦敦的高盛首席国际经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)表示：“中国政府即将调整人民币汇率。我认为相关举措正在酝酿之中。

　　”If Beijing can't cool things off and the property boom turns to bust, there could be a surge in nonperforming loans. A 10% fall in property values would triple the number of delinquent mortgages in Shanghai, regulators in the city said on Feb. 4. The damage could be worse than expected because some industrial loans to state-owned companies have been used to invest in real estate, says Charlene Chu, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Beijing. "There is a lot more hidden property exposure there than we can see," Chu says.

　　如果中国政府无法冷却市场导致房地产繁荣演变成灾难，那么坏账将出现激增。上海市监管人员在2月4日表示，如果房地产价值下滑10%，上海的违约抵押贷款将增至原来的3倍。惠誉国际信用评级有限公司驻北京分析师朱夏琳表示，国有企业的某些行业内贷款被用于房地产投资，这可能会令问题雪上加霜。她声称：“隐藏的房地产风险比我们看到的要严重得多。”

　　Despite the bubble talk, some analysts say the worries may be overblown. CBRE says vacancy rates are starting to fall and rents are rising for the best buildings as China's growth buoys demand. "In many cases when you look at these buildings and say, 'That's never going to be fully occupied,' somehow 12 to 18 months later the building is full," says Chris Brooke, CBRE's Asia chief.

　　尽管如此，一些分析人员声称泡沫言论可能言过其实。CBRE表示，由于中国的经济增长令需求回升，空置率已开始回落。CBRE亚洲区总裁克里斯·布鲁克(Chris Brooke)表示：“在许多情况下，当你看着那些写字楼并声称‘永远不可能全部租出去’时，12到18个月之后，那里却挤满了人。”

　　Builders, meanwhile, continue to build. Some 13 million square feet of new office space will enter the market in Beijing this year, increasing the total stock by about 13%, according to real estate adviser Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL). "We are optimistic about 2010 prospects," says Zhong Rongming, deputy general manager of the China World Trade Center Co., which developed the $965 million China World Tower 3. "China is taking the lead in the global economic recovery with a very positive economic outlook."

　　在泡沫言论盛嚣尘上的同时，建筑商们还在继续修建房屋。根据房地产顾问公司仲量联行的数据，今年北京将新建约1300万英尺的写字楼，使得房地产供应总量增长约13%。开发96500万美元国贸三期的中国国际贸易中心股份有限公司副总经理钟荣明说道：“我们对2010年的前景表示乐观。中国正引领世界经济复苏，其经济前景一片光明。”

　　Many of the new projects are being built with help from local governments. In eastern Beijing, officials are hoping to double the size of a vast development called the Central Business District, even though its vacancy rate is 35%. Financial Street Holding, whose biggest shareholder is an arm of the municipal government, has plans for 10 million square feet of additional space starting this year.

　　许多新项目的建设得到了当地政府的支持。虽然位于北京东部的巨型中央商务区的空置率达到了35%，但官员们仍希望其开发规模能再翻番。金融街控股股份有限公司计划今年起新建1000万英尺的房产，而其最大股东正是当地政府的一个下属机构。

　　GATHERING DUST

　　越来越多的粉尘

　　A mile or so east of Tiananmen Square, the five towers of the Minsheng Financial Center remain nearly empty more than a year after leasing began. Across town, take a walk down Financial Street, and you'll pass No. 9, a 17-story concrete-and-glass tower that's unoccupied. One block south, no lights shine from Nos. 12 and 16, the two towers of the 18-story China Life Plaza. Two blocks farther on are another pair of 18-story buildings, Nos. 20 and 22, belonging to the Bank of Communications. Dirt is gathering at their doors, and a lobby is being used as a parking area for bicycles.

　　在天安门东方大约1公里处就是民生金融中心的5栋大楼，在1年多以前就已开始对外出租，但至今仍然几乎无人入驻。在金融街走上一遭，你会发现金融街 9号这个钢筋水泥和玻璃组成的17层大楼依然空空如也。在其南边一个街区的地方，金融街12-16号的生活广场两栋18层大楼没有一丝灯光。然后是两个街区外的20-22号，属于中国交通银行的两栋18层大楼同样是门可罗雀，接待大厅已经成了自行车停车场。

　　No. 8 Financial St., by contrast, has a new tenant. A company called China Huarong Asset Management has put up its corporate flag and red lanterns in celebration of the Lunar New Year. While any activity on that desolate stretch should cheer those who fear a bubble, Huarong's arrival may do more to fuel their concerns than to allay them. Its mission: selling bad debt from banks.

　　相比之下，金融街8号却迎来了一个新租户。华融资产管理公司已经挂起了公司旗帜和灯笼庆祝农历新年。然而，华融的到来或许加剧而不是减轻了人们对泡沫的担忧，因为其使命正是卖掉来自银行的坏账。